A painter, a violinist, a writer, and a metal band
Van Gogh produced over two thousand artworks but sold only a few during his lifetime. He struggled his entire life and relied on financial support from his brother. After he died, his paintings became one of the most valuable artworks in the world.
Joshua Bell, one of the world’s greatest violinists in 2007, tried a social experiment. He went busking in the subway, playing his multi-million dollar Stradivarius violin. Very few stopped to listen to him 1.
The Harry Potter series was rejected twelve times. J.K. Rowling didn’t quit—her persistence convinced a small London publisher to give it a chance. The series went on to sell over six hundred million copies.
Anvil, a heavy metal band formed in 1978, slipped into decades of obscurity but didn’t quit. In 2008, after being the subject of a documentary movie, they became famous and got the recognition they deserved.
Same as ever
Was the music of Anvil bad and after fame arrived, it turned amazing? No! Their music remained unchanged.
Was the Harry Potter manuscript worthless thrash before it became a best-seller? No, it was the same material.
Was Joshua Bell playing his Stradivarius badly? No, he played as beautifully as ever, but nobody noticed him.
Were Van Gogh’s paintings worthless and his death skyrocketed the price of a painting to hundreds of millions of dollars? No, Van Gogh’s paintings were always valuable, but the market didn’t see it.
How to make hits
Any released product inherently has a “hit” potential. But the potential might not materialise for reasons outside our control.
We also overestimate our abilities and our talent.
We underestimate the long hours, the retries, the rejections, and the many prerequisites to rise to fame.
One-hit wonders are like lightning. Everything has to align, and the timing needs to be perfect, which rarely is.
Leave it to the pros
Surely the pros know how to create hits, no?
Most professionals are no better than us at identifying the “diamonds.”
- Editors reject multimillion-dollar manuscripts.
- Record labels pass signing unproven musicians who have award-winning talent.
- All of the 2,132 actively managed stock or bond funds lost to the S&P 500 index fund over the last five years 2.
There is no recipe to follow and predict if “it” will become a hit.
There are too many parameters, and some are impossible to calculate (like luck or opportunity.)
Also, as a collective, we don’t know what we like. Someone has to show us (hello, marketing!)
A word of advice
Surely a professional’s advice carries more weight than a friend’s opinion right?
Well, not really.
Did you know that Nobel laureates are 22 times more likely to be amateur dancers, magicians, actors, or performers than professional scientists? 3
A professional might be quick to shoot down an idea. They’ve seen many similar ones. But no matter if the idea is bad or common, its success lies in execution.
Professionals have been honing their craft for years, and they’re efficient. But their experience makes them oblivious to new angles, creative mashups, or anticipating landscape shifts.
A friend’s uninformed opinion might inspire you to keep trying.
Staying in the game long enough increases your odds of winning.
Ignore expertise or gravitas.
Be objective and only listen to advice if it’s helpful to you. Even if the advice is true but unhelpful, discard it and keep going.
Try again, maybe?
We assume we’re always wrong, and “they” know better.
But in reality, most of the time, others strike gold only because they take more shots. Because they get up, dust off, and retry.
History has shown persistence is as important as luck or skill.
So yes, try and try again.
Be “out there” searching for your lightning.
There are no guarantees you’ll find it.
But if you quit, you surely won’t make it. That’s a guarantee.